To predict the number of photonics technicians needed by the year 2005 in U.S. companies within the photonics industry
Population under study. The "population" under study was defined based on the companies listed in The Photonics Corporate Guide to Profiles and Addresses Book 1, 2000, 46th International Edition.
In defining the population, some restrictions were applied and the following companies were not considered as part of the study:
- Companies
with less than four employees were not considered, since it was
assumed that most may be consultant firms rather than large employers.
The total number of companies within this class was 182.
- "Jumbo"
companies, that is, companies with more than 1000 employees,
were not considered given that they are at one end of the distribution,
which, in turn, may affect or bias the whole computation process. The
total number of companies within this class was 63.
- International
companies, that is, companies with overseas manufacturing facilities,
were not considered. The total number of companies within this class
was 1119.
- Companies with no employee information given were 538.
After this selection process, the total number of companies in the population was 2431. A frequency distribution analysis was performed to define classes or groups within the population, using number of employees as the selection criterion. The class intervals defined are shown in Table 1.
|
Table
1
Population Frequency Distribution |
|||
|
Class
Interval (# of employees)
|
Number
of Companies
|
||
| 4-25 employees |
1,183
|
||
| 26-200 employees |
1,032
|
||
| 201-1000 employees |
216
|
||
| Total |
2,431
|
||
Data collection. A random sample of 321 companies was drawn from the population of 2431 companies, and a questionnaire was designed to obtain information from the companies within the sample concerning their use of photonics technicians. Questionnaires were administered by phone, with the support of an online visual questionnaire for respondents to refer to while answering the questions.
Results of the data-collection process are summarized in Table 2.
|
Table
2
Summary of Data-Collection Process |
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|
Result
|
Number
of Companies
|
Percentage
of
321 Companies |
||
| Indicated no interest |
46
|
14.3% | ||
| Answers to questions 1 and 2 were negative (a) |
130
|
|
40.5% | |
| Call backs (after 3 times) |
106
|
33% | ||
| Completed questionnaire (b) |
39
|
12.1% | ||
| Total |
321
|
100% | ||
|
(a) Question one asks "Do you currently have technicians in your company who are working in the area of photonics?" Question two asks "Do you anticipate a need for photonics technicians in your company in the next five years?" Companies that gave negative answers to questions 1 and 2 were eliminated from the "population under study." (b) The rate of response was 12.1% (completed questionnaires against total sample size). The expected rate of response for surveys of this nature is usually around 10%. |
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If we assume that the percentage of negative answers to questions 1 and 2 found in the sample (40.5%) will be same for the total population, the figures in Table 1 can be adjusted as shown in Table 3.
|
Table
3
Adjusted Population |
|||
|
Class
Interval
|
Number
of Companies
|
||
| 4-25 employees |
704
|
||
| 26-200 employees |
614
|
||
| 201-1000 employees |
129
|
||
| Total |
1,447
|
||
The adjusted population shown in Table 3 was used as the basis for the calculations leading to our findings.
Results from the survey questions on number of technicians currently employed and number of technicians anticipated to be hired by the year 2005 were analyzed for groups of companies, based on number of employees, according to the three class intervals given in Table 1.
Table 4 summarizes the results for the three class intervals.
|
Table
4
Estimated Number of Photonics Technicians in Industry Today and Projected Number Needed in Year 2005 (companies in adjusted subpopulations) |
||||||
|
Company
Size
|
4-25
Employees |
26-200
Employees |
201-1000
Employees |
|||
|
Number
of companies sampled
|
19
|
|
13 |
|
7 | |
| Average number of technicians per company employed in 2000 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 99.3 | |||
| Average number of technicians per company expected in 2005 | 6.4 | 21.6 | 268.1 | |||
| Estimated number of technicians employed in 2000 | 1,963 | 5,219 | 12,761 | |||
| Projected number of technicians needed by 2005 | 4,538 | 13,273 | 34,453 | |||
| Expected increase in number and in percentage | 2,575 (131%) | 8,054 (154%) | 21,692 (170%) | |||
From the table above, the projected total number of photonics technicians needed in 2005 (except for "jumbo" companies) is 52,264. When compared with the estimated number of technicians currently employed, the expected increase in the demand for technicians for the period 2001–2005 is shown in the last row of Table 4.
The chart below shows the projected need for photonics technicians between the years 2000 and 2005.
From these figures one can conclude that for the next five years it will be necessary to generate 6460 new photonics technicians per year to meet the expected increase in demand. This figure may be considered "conservative" or "prudent," given that the so-called "jumbo" companies were not included in the study. If these companies were included, the "expected increase in demand for technicians" likely would be even higher. A challenge clearly confronts us now: How can the educational community gear up to turn out these numbers?